Glycol decline has long and variable close

EG: have dropped too long, and variable window approaching. Since 2014 the East China MEG market fell 10.48 percent compared to the beginning of the current round of decline since December 2013 , to a current total fell 15.72% , with market participants saying the reasons described - good hard to find. Indeed ! Round decline stage , first downstream polyester tight cash flow ( since July 2013 , the polyester deteriorating earnings , the average loss for the second half of polyester FDY 219 yuan / ton, the December average loss of 165 yuan / ton ) , Then polyester load continued to decline in the year ( by the end of January fell 8.5% MoM ) , in addition to the port inventory is rising ( stock grew 32.13% compared with the beginning , almost equal to the size of 1.2 million tons , higher than the normal level of 40 to 500,000 tons ) . It is because of bad fundamentals followed, under the macroeconomic situation and sluggish , since 2014 , MEG new low-frequency performance, and in one fell swoop last week beneath the 2013 low of yesterday is below 6,700 yuan / ton. Since this time the bears to make the whole day. But it is worth noting that , hitting 6,700 yuan / ton , instantly regain lost ground .Wholesale masking tape

Round decline across 2013,2014 , if counting from last August , has lasted more than six months , investors see electronic trading daily , has the fifth wave , but where is the wave of the tail ? Our first look at the current fundamental changes are quietly has occurred. With PTA and MEG constantly dropping , by the end of December 2013 , polyester FDY150D begin to reach breakeven . Since 2014 , profitability is significantly improved, the data show: Polyester month profit 476 yuan / ton , an increase of 778.84% , growth of 20.65% . With significantly improved earnings situation, polyester years after returning a positive start to improve significantly , as of press time , PET load of 74.68% , representing an increase of 10.19% by the end of January , representing a temporary low of 3.3 percent. MEG 's current repression is a mountain high above the pressure on the stock , inventory constantly refreshed since 2014 highs , 37.89 percent over the same period last year is now higher , the chain increased 14.67% . 23 to the 25th of this month focus to Hong Kong this week after a new high port stocks is still possible .Masking tape

There are investors who declined to be named , said: With the MEG 's record lows , domestic MEG production business has been close to the vicinity of the cost line , if earnings deteriorate reproduction load is bound to be adjusted downwards , thus diminishing profitability as expected future supply pressure slows , or to some extent mitigate the port inventory growth momentum . After the inventory is expected this week, a new high port stocks next week will mark the first down. Imagine Why Inventory innovative high , due to the PET facility to buy up sell , bad spot demand , port of arrival was due to the backlog . The next spot demand will be so bad you ? PTA has fallen below 6,300 yuan / ton, more than the investor remains bearish . Since the amount of PET raw materials accounted for 86% of the raw material has fallen so unbearable situation, the cost advantage of significantly improved PET plant , the purchase of stock at this time little of MEG - both to ease the tight raw material problems, and do not worry about the cost of upgrading too much, because MEG in PET material consumption accounted for only 34% of it in after all . The above analysis of demand, supply , earnings and related products , which in addition to one counseling in the end than the PTA , MEG 's fundamentals are improving.Washi tape

Combined delivery approaches, profit taking short positions will accelerate , I am afraid Annai live downstream plant purchases the heart of it , coupled with the decline in the window opening time exceeded six months, the decline lasted too long , and is currently estimated to have close and variable window So the short term is expected to appear on , now jointly rise rare situation. But optimism aside, the place still needs attention: Polyester earnings despite a significant turn for the better , but this is precisely the rigid demand suppressed polyester , recently cut a single cut -off textile city , so for the sustainability of earnings improvement , Needless to suggest that investors are too optimistic. At the same time , by the comparison chart trend in 2013 earnings between MEG prices , reflected in its relationship is very limited. However, it is undeniable that the polyester profits and load into a significant positive correlation , so the fundamentals of the current upturn , but also for how long? Decline in the foreseeable future PTA , polyester is a double-edged sword ! Say to change disk , worries or problems duration of investors, some investors said that if the rebound will continue to chase rallies empty .Sellotape