China's methanol production and collection of a variety of materials course , the utilization rate of raw materials in addition to the affected routes , but also with fertilizer and coking industry market conditions and many other factors.
Natural gas methanol affected the supply and prices of raw materials over the years has been low capacity utilization , in 2012 the average capacity utilization rate of 73.7% . The future impact of natural gas supply and price factors will be more significant , the operating rate will show a downward trend , expected part of the natural gas methanol plant will gradually shut down or restructuring of raw materials , raw coal into a route .
Coke oven gas methanol as the industry resource utilization, recycling economy industry developed rapidly in recent years . Affected by the coking industry , started in 2012, coke oven gas and methanol rate remained at a low level .
Co-production of methanol and ammonia fertilizer industry is unique , 2012 Coal-based Methanol production capacity of about 11.1 million tons / year, accounting for 21.5 percent of total capacity of methanol , is an important part of China's methanol industry. Over the years , to protect the supply of fertilizers , associated alcohol industry operating rate has remained relatively low level , especially in the fertilizer market in 2012 is better, further down the linking alcohol production , annual operating at only 40.7 percent , down 7.9 points .
Coal-based mono-alcohols methanol production capacity accounted for 45.2 percent of total capacity , is China's methanol industry leading . In 2012, coal-based alcohol production reached 15.16 million tons alone , capacity utilization reached 65.1% , an increase of 8.4 percentage points. By 2012 less than new coal-based methanol production time and Datang Duolun device produced by the project did not go well MTP impact , resulting in combined average operating rate of the national level is not high . Had the new coal-based methanol production capacity ( 3.8 million tons / year ) and Doran methanol (167 tons / year ) of production capacity are 50 percent consider the field of coal-based alcohol alone operating rate will increase to 73.8 %.
In recent years, China's methanol industry showed the following characteristics:
1 industrial layout and focus primarily on resource consumption in the region
China's methanol production capacity mainly distributed in the central and western regions have the advantage of raw materials and some eastern coastal areas have a market advantage. 2012 , methanol production capacity of the top ten provinces are Inner Mongolia ( 16% ) , Shandong ( 12% ) , Shanxi ( 9% ) , Henan ( 9% ) , Shaanxi ( 7% ) , Ningxia ( 5% ) , Hebei ( 5% ) , Chongqing ( 5% ) , Xinjiang ( 4% ) , Jiangsu ( 3% ) , accounting for about 75% of the total capacity of methanol .
In recent years , the domestic methanol production capacity and output to raw material resources to focus on the trend evident over the past 10 years by region of methanol production also changed.
Expected future methanol production capacity of coke oven gas is mainly concentrated in the northwest region incremental coal methanol to olefins production capacity and supporting the north and northwest areas of the methanol production capacity. Therefore, the future of methanol production capacity will be further concentrated to the north and northwest .
In addition, provinces have focused on methanol feed line . Coal as raw material methanol enterprises are mainly located in Shandong, Henan, Inner Mongolia , Hebei, Shanxi, Shaanxi and other provinces ; natural gas methanol enterprises are mainly distributed in Chongqing, Qinghai, Shaanxi, Southwest and Northwest regions ; coke oven gas methanol enterprises are mainly concentrated in the Shanxi, Hebei, Shandong, Inner Mongolia and other provinces. Shanghai , Jiangsu, Zhejiang , Fujian and other provinces and cities in East China has the market , transport, logistics and distribution , and other advantages , which can effectively compensate for the higher cost of coal less competitive effects of lead in the domestic methanol industry also plays an important role .
2 coke oven gas has become an important part of the methanol
Our country is short of petroleum and gas, coal resources are relatively rich countries , coal-based methanol production , raw materials , supplemented by natural gas route for China's national conditions. In recent years , with the national policy adjustments raw materials and technological progress , the new device is mainly coal as raw material , especially in the rapid development of non- anthracite as raw devices .
In addition, in recent years, the rapid development of the domestic coking industry , coke oven gas comprehensive utilization of resources to get as much attention , coke oven gas and methanol production capacity rapidly and become an important part of China's methanol industry. Coke oven gas methanol production capacity / year by the rapid growth of 180,000 tons in 2006 to 805 by 2012 tons / year , the proportion of production capacity also increased to 15.6% from 1.3% .
3 further enhance industrial concentration
In recent years, the size of the device and to further enhance the industrial concentration of methanol , has formed Shenhua , Yanzhou Mining , Jiutai Energy , CNOOC, Yuan Xing Energy , KCHL megaton many other large-scale methanol production enterprises. In 2012, before the country ranked 30 methanol production enterprises accounted for about 75 % of total production , reflecting the high degree of industrial concentration . But it also means that the remaining methanol production enterprises more than 200 production accounted for only 25% of total output.
Overall , China's small and medium enterprises are still a number of methanol production , mainly in Shanxi, Henan, Hebei and other places, and methanol is relatively decentralized corporate layout is not conducive to centralized storage, transport and processing of commodities methanol , is not conducive to environmental protection, monitoring the safety and other aspects .
Status of methanol consumption analysis
Compared with the rapid growth of domestic methanol production, methanol consumption of China also experienced a rapid growth process. In 2012, the apparent consumption of methanol reached 36.22 million tons , 8.8 times in 2002 . Beginning in 2004 , the apparent consumption of methanol show rapid growth over the past eight years, the average annual growth rate of 25.9%. The main factors driving the rapid growth of China's methanol consumption on the one hand that the traditional areas of formaldehyde, acetic acid , methane chloride , such as maintaining a stable development , on the other alcohol fuels , alternative emerging field of petrochemical raw materials , such as the rapid development ( of the past decade methanol supply and demand situation in Figure 2 ) .
Since 2010, China's methanol market downstream consumption patterns vary widely . Mainly as follows: traditional consumption ( formaldehyde, acetic acid , methylamine , MTBE, methane chloride , etc. ) methanol demand growth gradually stabilized , alcohol fuels and alternative areas of the field of petrochemical feedstocks ( olefins ) is developing rapidly ( in 2002 , 2007 and 2012 changes in consumption structure of methanol as shown in Table 3 ) .
Over the past 10 years , consumption of methanol traditional areas still maintain a rapid growth , with an average annual growth rate of 21.4% , but with the downstream market demand stabilized and saturation , growth has slowed. Among them, only acetic acid and organic silicon industry due to technological breakthroughs in consumer demand for methanol momentum remains strong , but with acetic acid overcapacity and market saturation , the future of methanol consumption growth will slow .
Alcohol fuel used in some provinces rapid development . In 2012, methanol fuel consumption is estimated to reach about 600 million tonnes ( including methanol, gasoline , liquefied petroleum ether , acetal , etc. ) , accounting for 17% of the total methanol consumption. DME field of alternative consumption is about 6.9 million tons of liquefied gas , methanol accounted for 19% of total consumption .
Since 2011 , as China's coal -to-olefins demonstration projects running load gradually increased, in 2012 the consumption of methanol to olefins in the field of about 4.24 million tons of methanol , 12% of total consumption . In addition, in early 2013 a pilot plant methanol aromatics also successfully test success . Herald of methanol instead of petrochemical raw materials will become an important direction of development of methanol consumption .
And methanol production corresponds to the rapid growth , China's self-sufficiency rate of methanol consumption of 56.4% from 2002 to 2007 the rapid increase of 97.7% , the basic supply and demand balance. But by the impact of foreign low-cost natural gas methanol , since 2009 China's methanol imports grew by leaps and bounds in recent years has been maintained at around 500 million tons.
The main problem exists Methanol Industry
( A ) rapid capacity expansion
Stage characterized by significant overcapacity
Since 2003 , with the high and volatile international crude oil prices continue rising and domestic dependence on foreign oil , and stimulate the domestic methanol fuel alternative to petroleum strategic consumer expectations, resulting in the development of methanol overheating situation , and the rapid expansion of production capacity in 2008 after the focus release, and the methanol did not reach the previous alternative energy consumption is expected , with foreign low-cost natural gas methanol swarmed into the domestic market, the domestic methanol production enterprises caused a greater impact , to some extent , affected the domestic enterprises operating rate of methanol , the whole industry showed periodic overcapacity situation. In addition, in the next 2 to 3 years are still a number of projects under construction methanol production, methanol production is expected to be able to stage the short term there will be further exacerbate overcapacity situation .
( B) the level of enterprise technology behind the weak competitiveness of the industry
Domestic long-term extensive development mode contradictions and problems accumulated more prominent than some companies follow to coal as raw material , or follow the low efficiency of resource use traditional techniques , expanding production capacity in order to win , the industrial development of poor quality , the overall competitiveness of the industry weak force . Natural gas resources in the country and abroad to export -oriented, low-cost natural gas and oil associated gas as feedstock development of large natural gas , methanol, with significant cost competitiveness , expected within the next long period, China will continue to be an important foreign methanol producers target market foreign low-cost methanol impact on the Chinese market will persist .
( C) the supply of raw materials and natural gas methanol prices facing challenges
In recent years, natural gas supply and gas prices rose to a certain extent affected the natural gas methanol plant operating rates. Natural gas as a clean energy , improve air quality for significant future natural gas supply in the field of methanol will be further tight , and with the market price of natural gas will further weaken the competitiveness of methanol , natural gas is expected to part of the methanol plant will gradually shut down or adjust the raw coal route .
(D ) the spatial separation of methanol sales
Uneven economic development zone over the country , resulting in the consumption of methanol obvious regional differences . 2012 consumption of methanol mainly concentrated in the East, South economically developed areas, spending 11.91 million tons and 9.19 million tons of methanol , respectively, 33% and 25% of total consumption, followed by North China , accounting for 21% of consumption.
The production of methanol can be distributed mostly in the central and western regions rich in coal , a relatively small local market capacity , methanol subject to long-distance transport of goods to the target market , sales area delimited serious. Methanol are hazardous chemicals , long-distance transport is not only a security risk , but also because of the need to use special tankers , causing back empty waste capacity , increase in unit cost of product sales , weakening the competitiveness of products ( methanol production need to balance various regions in Figure 3 ) .
(E ) the lack of policy support for ethanol fuel
In recent years , the state authorities for the methanol introduced a series of alternative fuels to support macroeconomic policy , but into concrete operational level, is still a lack of relevant supporting policies ( pricing , fiscal policy , development model, technology platforms, etc. ) support , alcohol fuel production , sale and application of the lack of scientific guidance and specifications. In practice it is difficult to get coordinated transportation, industrial, commercial, security and other sectors , while there are some security risks.
Future supply and demand balance analysis and forecasting of methanol
( A ) future capacity growth slowing commodity methanol
For the relevant documents in the domestic methanol industry development ,2009- 2011 issued by the State , the methanol has become one of the key regulatory objects. In particular, in 2011 the National Development and Reform Commission issued the " orderly development of coal chemical industry norms notice" ( Fa Gai Industry [ 2011 ] No. 635 ) further strict examination and approval management methanol project .Wholesale masking tape
Future expansion of production capacity of pure methanol project goods limited growth capacity , methanol production capacity grew mainly from coal- methanol to olefins project as well as some natural gas methanol feedstock structural transformation projects. According to the current domestic methanol project intends to build on progress and consider some of backward production capacity gradually shut down in 2015 the domestic methanol production will be maintained at around 58 million tons / year methanol production in 2020 will reach about 85 million tons / year, new increase can mainly from coal to olefins fields.
(B ) the excess demand for stable growth stage will ease
Methanol periodic pattern of excess capacity will continue for some time , but now domestic product of blind expansion of production capacity of methanol momentum has begun to slow , while the downstream methanol as an alternative feedstock petrochemicals ( olefins, aromatics ) continues to expand, the downstream demand has appeared stable signs of growth . Against this backdrop , the industry is expected to methanol or will experience a steady transition to a good process .
Domestic demand is expected in 2015 will reach 46.75 million tons of methanol , methanol production capacity is still overcapacity ; with methanol instead of further development of the field of petrochemicals , methanol demand in 2020 is expected to reach 76 million tons . During 2015-2020 , the coal -to-olefins demonstration projects will be put into upgrading , will to a large extent driven by improved operating rate of coal methanol . In addition, the methanol industry, eliminate backward technology upgrades, structural adjustment measures in place, methanol to significantly improve the competitiveness of the premise , the methanol industry is expected in 2020 will further enhance the level of capacity utilization , production overcapacity contradictions stage will also be eased.
Measures to promote the methanol industry restructuring proposal
1 access conditions for the development of the methanol industry standard development
Strictly control the total amount of methanol, methanol resolutely curb blind development momentum in the implementation of the new methanol capacity replacement guide anthracite methanol , methanol and natural gas business enterprises raw route adjustments or exit. Recommended the development of " methanol industry access" , periodically methanol enterprises improve access and management threshold.
2 . Promote corporate mergers and acquisitions to extend the industrial chain, enhance competitiveness
Methanol companies and energy companies to support , through mergers and acquisitions , integration of production factors , optimizing the allocation of resources , complementary advantages , the formation of large-scale and intensive enterprise groups , improve industrial concentration . To increase high-tech research and development of methanol downstream applications , focusing on the development of new chemical materials , fine chemicals and clean energy and other fields, there is a market demand and deep- processed products with high added value . Methanol production capacity concentrated in the Midwest, to concentrate resources in the construction area methanol methanol to olefins project , the development of the petrochemical industry chain extension , to effectively relieve excess methanol and Sinotrans difficult regional situation .Masking tape
(3) Strengthen standards rulemaking alternative energy industry norms
Strengthen the new civil , automotive and other fields to use alcohol fuel demonstration, promotion and regulatory standards , and gradually establish and improve production, distribution , use, service regulations and standards, regulate the production, sale and use of alcohol fuel , to achieve an alternative healthy development of the fuel in the field .Washi tape
4 . Accelerate the elimination of backward production capacity to strengthen industry regulation
Eliminated from the methanol industry to develop standards of environmental protection , energy conservation, water, security and other aspects , the methanol plant does not meet the requirements to promote its deadline to exit through differentiated water, electricity , tax and other economic measures. , Field supervision and management mechanism to establish a long-term industry . Environmental , quality supervision, industry and commerce, safety supervision departments should be based on their respective responsibilities in accordance with the relevant policies, such as access conditions , strengthen the supervision and inspection of the methanol industry . At the same time , give full play to the role of industry organizations to establish and improve information release and early warning systems , the timely release of the national industrial policy to the community , to coordinate development of the industry on major issues , strengthen self-discipline , reducing blind investment and guide the healthy development of the industry .Sellotape
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