Liters of water a large space on the first day
DCE published relevant rules show that the first batch of polypropylene futures contracts traded PP1405, PP1406, PP1407, PP1408, PP1409, PP1410, PP1411, PP1412, PP1501, PP1502, tentative contract trading margin of 5% of the contract value , price limits is tentatively scheduled for 4% of the previous day's settlement price of the new contract on the first day price limits range of 8% to hang disk benchmark price .
" As China is the largest producer of polypropylene and consumer countries in the world , this species is listed undoubtedly a much-anticipated market ." Can turn an analyst Fan Hongxia in an interview with reporters , said after the listing of the species , completely out of business by "other hand" to hedge , but also greatly broadened the investor's investment channels , from this perspective , the future of polypropylene liquidity is very optimistic, enthusiastic expectations of market participants trading polypropylene high.
Huatai Great Wall researcher胡佳鹏also believes that the smallest change in polypropylene futures price of 1 yuan / ton, which is conducive to add more quotes , resulting in transactions easier, more downstream will also meet the needs of customers , so liquidity optimistic.
For the DCE to determine the base price for listing polypropylene 10,500 yuan / ton , the industry generally believe that low.
" 10,500 yuan / ton too low ." Hujia Peng told reporters that the market price of 11,300 yuan Hangzhou drawing T30S / ton premium listing price spot price 800 yuan / ton, while the PE spot price 11,100 yuan / ton, only premium spot futures price of 275 yuan / ton , PP discount rate relatively high level . Fundamentally, the downstream plant operation rate gradually increased , drawing 4-5 months more for peak demand , in addition , the recent price of petrochemical quite obvious intent , merchants offer higher. Therefore , today opened up greater probability in the short term or in the 1405 contract price 10450-10900 yuan / ton, can be used to buy PP1405 throw PE1405 contracts hedging strategies .
Analysts also believe that relaxation exchange listing price is low , consider much shorter . "The recent LLDPE1405 contract discount rate at around 3% , comparison, polypropylene 1405 contract premium of about 3% in the 10,860 yuan / ton, 1409 contracts , LLDPE premium of about 5% , 5% of the premium polypropylene about 10,600 yuan / ton . "Wholesale masking tape
Liu Jie, head of the polypropylene chain relatively conservative views , he said, from nearly two years of market trend, 11,000 yuan / ton just at 10,000 yuan / ton low and 12,000 yuan / ton high in the middle , facing the market may rise may go down as the situation of supply and demand has not yet formed a unilateral Game Change trend , wait for further guidance game face . In the long run , PP futures market would reduce the impact of supply and demand for PP efforts to increase the intensity of intervention policies and PP futures , the futures price movements of the market prices more transparent.
Liu Jie also reminded investors concerned about the PP futures arbitrage opportunities listed . He said , first of all, the spot price volatility and more frequent , long-term is difficult to grasp in the current market , now combined as a set of security tools , to minimize risk . Secondly , PP and LLDPE Change largely consistent trend , but the magnitude of the gap between ups and downs this year have increased , concern spread arbitrage opportunities between the two .
In the long term to maintain the "empty idea ."Masking tape
"At this stage , polypropylene spot market price of the December 2013 highs, the whole society inventory growth began to slow down, display destocking phase polypropylene market has begun , midline trend bearish ." Zhang Chi believes in the country high inventory context, there must be a market price higher stock traders rush to a relatively low price shipments, this has led to the buyer momentum was quickly consumed , and ultimately fell back again to the market price trend in 2014 polypropylene market or maintain short pattern .
It is understood that in recent years the initiative to adjust the economic structure of China's macro-economic growth started to slow down , woven industry is far downstream demand growth and supply growth , polypropylene high inventory . Wind data show that domestic polypropylene society as a whole since May 2013 inventory to the chain gradually climbed to January 2014 the growth rate peaked in mid- February into the ring than the growth rate fell to 10.83% , but the growth rate is still at nearly 5 to the peak year .
According to statistics, in recent years , the domestic industry has developed rapidly polypropylene production capacity is growing, by the end of 2013 , total capacity of 14.42 million tons of domestic PP , representing an increase of 2 million tons more than in 2012 , but 2014 is still the domestic PP the rapid expansion of annual production capacity , estimated annual production capacity of 400 tons.Washi tape
While demand remains weak support . It is learned that after the Spring Festival started downstream manufacturers increased demand for start stocking some manufacturers to accept the goods only to follow up , resulting polypropylene market turnover rose slightly this week . But two days spot market transaction situation , shipments of high- quoted East market is very poor , there have been a number of initiatives to reduce supply deal offer . Zhang Chi from the situation and the spot exchange business point of view, the demand side generally more cautious in the absence of demand to support the case , the lack of motivation to continue with the price rise .
Zhang Chi said that from polypropylene inventory cycle , in 2014 domestic production capacity , the midline trend bearish , 1405 contract at 10,900 yuan / ton at pressure, 1409 contract is 10600 yuan / ton in the vicinity face greater pressure to be rebounded to above the pressure level can be considered long-term empty one to enter.Sellotape
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