Once the " fame " of the PTA industry , now has entered a lonely season. Without high profits, instead of the whole industry losses , business down load , production, maintenance become the norm. But from the end of last year , PTA chain was accidentally caught in the vicious circle of low operating rates to compete . This phenomenon will bring the entire market and what impact ? Reporter conducted a survey visit .
Scale sprawl buried hazards
"PTA industry for nearly two years, emerging issues, in the final analysis, for the 2010 pay crazy ." Industry veteran Mr. Qian said during an interview before the PTA market has had the "golden age ", but it is also at this stage manufacturer " Juan does not think of danger " for the development of late planted the overcapacity problems.
After 2001, China's accession to WTO, the international market demand for Chinese textile and apparel increased significantly. At the same time , to benefit from the high-speed development of the domestic economy , domestic textile and apparel also quick release . Throughout the explosive growth of textile and apparel market , driven by the rapid expansion of PTA industry chain bottom .
" In the first half from 2009 to 2011 , can be said to be the golden age of development of the domestic PTA industry ." Futures Chemical Division Manager Cinda Futures Daily reporter Zhang told , by the end of 2010 to early 2011 , the domestic PTA industry profits surge. Especially in early November 2010 , the domestic industry producing dynamic PTA profit was as high as 3,500 yuan / ton, and maintain 1,500 yuan / ton high profits in a long time . Production capacity to 1 million tons of PTA production companies, for example , according to this level of profitability , less than three years can earn an equal amount of PTA body manufacturer . Meanwhile , PTA downstream products of polyester production profits equally impressive . At high profit driven , PTA- polyester capacity expansion of the industry into the peak period from 2011 onwards . At the end of last year, domestic PTA annual production capacity of 33.28 million tons , an increase of 114% compared to 2010 ; polyester production capacity of close to 41.05 million tons , an increase of 47.2 % over 2010 .
Zhejiang Harvest Group Ltd. Shen Liang have also deep. He recalled that after the 2008 financial crisis, China launched a 4 trillion yuan investment plan , PTA industry, " spring" follow soon. PTA producers at the time as long as they buy raw materials, the production will be able to make money selling products reluctant to sell common occurrences . "It was indeed too proud producers are at full capacity , and actively planning new device expansion, market and therefore there has been a growth spurt ."
The so-called extremes meet , make a huge production of PTA market pressure doubled the past two years PTA market competition is fierce . 2013 , to seize market share , some companies have cheap Paohuo PTA production , the rapid decline in profitability . According to Wang Guang Soochow Futures analyst ago , due to the PTA tends to excess capacity , domestic PTA producers profit margins are substantially compressed , raw materials and products also weakened bargaining power . Affected by the rapid expansion of production capacity , production companies began to strengthen upstream resources PX competition , to some extent, pushed up the PX price. Industry profits while streaming link to the PX and downstream polyester upstream link .
Chain trap " operating rate cycle ."
Due to sluggish demand , coupled with domestic economic slowdown , PTA production enterprises operating rate fell last year to become the norm . But since last November , PTA- polyester production chain has fallen into a " vicious circle ." In the case of polyester gradually reduced operating rates lowest in years , PTA production losses have been close to historic extremes , but the PTA plant operating rate is still hovering , PTA supply and demand situation deteriorated sharply .
Wang ago to reporters calculations , each producing one ton of polyester to consume 0.858 tons PTA, PTA , and last year the domestic polyester production capacity data calculations, if the domestic polyester production capacity full year to be consumed 36.29 million tons PTA, slightly higher than the national PTA enterprise full production capacity. But this is only an ideal state , due to heavy losses last year in polyester production and inventory in nearly nine -month high , the domestic polyester devices have entered the maintenance state , polyester operating rate fell to 65 %. To maintain a balance between supply and demand , PTA operating rate at 70.37 percent just to meet market demand for polyester . However, this year in January , PTA capacity utilization rate has remained at around 83.9% , 77.1%, even after the holiday fell nearby , remained high.
Data show that as of January 15, 2014 , the magnitude of PTA dynamic production losses amounted to 503 yuan manufacturer / ton, compared with last year's average loss rate of 300 yuan / ton increased a lot. Losses increase, while inventory pressure is too large, but the production has not seen significantly reduced willingness , in which PTA producers behind the game.
" In the fierce market competition , between PTA producers who are unwilling to shut down the device, its market share to others ." Wang ago explained that last year the domestic PTA production capacity utilization rate is only 75.85 percent , this year there Xiang Lu petrochemical, Hengli petrochemical, Sinopec Hong Sheng three total production capacity of 7.9 million tons waiting to release , and this part of the production capacity were postponed last year . Especially the 4.4 million tons produced Xianglu petrochemical production is expected to be able to have long , just waiting for the right time.
Shen Liang opinion, polyester industry operating rates decline and PTA production enterprise " contrarian " started this year's PTA is to contract negotiations. Polyester plant due to poor efficiency , but also to the PTA contract negotiations to get a bigger say , have started to reduce the load or announced overhaul plan. The PTA production enterprises, "Yi prevailed as" dominated the entire market. According to Shen Liang introduced , PTA leading enterprises in order to increase the weight Yisheng Petrochemical PTA contract negotiations this year , to improve the delivery delays at all major terminals are preparing a considerable amount of inventory to facilitate delivery. It also take advantage of lower production cost advantages, and actively producing suppress other companies.Wholesale masking tape
In fact, with the continuous release of new capacity , PTA industry competition , the way the contract goods PTA producers are the most important sales model. Most companies maintain high load PTA before and after the Spring Festival , mainly to ensure normal supply to the downstream contract customers .
In addition, because the price difference expanded PTA , polyester factories to buy stock, then sold in 1401 on the futures contracts , more cost-effective than their own production . With this in mind , in the case of polyester plant operating rates decline , still actively pick . This creates an active PTA started production enterprises , polyester factories and traders actively accept the goods supply and demand booming illusion.
Overcapacity will accelerate the industry consolidationMasking tape
"The market does have some irrational , after all, is the loss of PTA production capacity utilization , the more losses will more and PTA production company's cash flow situation is not as polyester plant in the production of polyester plant down load , reducing the demand for PTA when , PTA producers should also take the initiative to reduce production . " on the current serious imbalance between supply and demand chain PTA phenomenon , many market participants told reporters about their concerns , the excess supply in the short term PTA will further exacerbate the pressure spot prices , increased loss of production enterprises , thereby accelerating the integration and PTA industry reshuffle.
"Just the whole textile chain in terms of capacity expansion in recent years, bottom-up , industry profits have gone through the process of transfer from the downstream to upstream . Currently in Raw materials PX capacity expansion cycle , PX profit is compressed, the future PTA prices will decline through cost collapsing . " trader Lee told reporters , after the emergence of overcapacity , industry consolidation is inevitable. Since before 2011 , PTA production enterprise profits, although the current loss , but they also could " rest on our laurels ." In addition , in order to ensure market share , companies can continue to produce at a loss . Meanwhile, with the increase in supply of PX , PTA only increase the supply situation will continue for some time . But when the stock to a certain extent , when some companies could not carry losses , industry reshuffle will begin .Washi tape
Futures analyst Qian Tao said , the demand for polyester industry PTA deteriorating , according to the market to buy or not buy up the mentality of the downstream procurement in a bear market will be more cautious and conservative, and this will lead to a vicious cycle of upstream and downstream relationships . In his view, the market recovered to make a rational state , PTA production companies need to adapt to the trend . "In the context of overcapacity , PTA producers can no longer blindly started to market-oriented operating rate decision , respecting the price law is a rational choice to run the enterprise ."Sellotape
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